Ontario's landfills are facing a capacity crisis. The province is rapidly running out of landfill space, with estimates suggesting they could be full in approximately nine years - maybe less [1]. Several factors, including increased waste generation and a lack of new landfill development drive this looming shortage.
Ontario exports a significant amount of waste to the U.S., including Michigan, which has historically been a destination for landfill and waste processing from Ontario. Michigan currently charges a low fee of 36 cents per ton for landfill waste disposal levied by the State. This low cost has made it a destination for trash from other states and Canada. In 2024, Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer proposed a significant increase in landfill fees from 36 cents to $5 per ton [2]. This proposal aims to bring Michigan's fees in line with regional averages and discourage out-of-state waste dumping.
Looming above changes specific to Michigan, the Trump-era tariffs (or any changes under the current administration), and potential Canadian retaliatory tariffs will result in dramatic changes across the industry. As of writing, tariffs are not imposed on waste exported into the United States, yet the cost of exporting waste to Michigan specifically, could still see a rise.
While recent tariffs and trade policy shifts are poised to impact both Canada and the U.S. on a broader scale, this post will focus specifically on the Ontario-Michigan relationship to highlight the direct effects on waste management between these two regions. Ontario’s dependence on Michigan as a key destination for waste disposal—and Michigan’s efforts to regulate this flow—offers a clear example of how local, cross-border relationships can be dramatically influenced by broader trade changes. By narrowing in on this provincial and state connection, we can better understand how the ripple effects of tariffs could lead to significant shifts in waste management practices, cost structures, and logistical challenges on both sides of the border.
With export costs rising dramatically for Ontario’s waste and limited landfill capacity, the pressure is on for the province to find new waste disposal methods or ramp up efforts to divert waste. This could come about in several ways, including:
1. Increase Recycling and Composting Infrastructure
Expanding recycling and composting programs is key. This could include:
Investing in More Facilities: Currently, two new MRFs are being built in Ontario by WM and are a direct response to Ontario's transition to an EPR system for packaging. These facilities are designed to meet the new program requirements, increase recycling capacity, and streamline the return of recycled materials to producers. Building or upgrading more recycling and composting centers would be necessary to handle the increased volume of diverted waste.
Incentivizing Diversion: Ontario could offer incentives for both consumers and businesses to increase their diversion. This could include pay-as-you-throw systems, deposit return programs, composting incentives, educational campaigns, and even mandatory diversion requirements.
A significant portion of the waste generated in Ontario’s residential sector could be diverted from landfills if managed properly. In fact, studies show that about half of the average residential waste stream is either recyclable or compostable. By improving recycling programs and expanding composting initiatives, Ontario could immediately reduce the amount of waste sent to landfills by 50%. This highlights the importance of enhancing waste diversion efforts—not only to extend the life of existing landfills but also to minimize the environmental impact of landfill-bound materials.
2. Circular Economy Approaches
Moving towards a circular economy could help keep waste out of landfills altogether by designing products with recycling in mind and finding markets for recycled materials. A promising example of this model is used by Friendly, a company that helps businesses adopt more sustainable practices. By working with companies to develop closed-loop systems, Friendly ensures that products are designed with reuse and recycling in mind from the outset. Their approach not only helps businesses reduce waste but also enables them to participate in a circular economy where materials are continually repurposed, rather than discarded. Friendly creates viable markets for recycled materials, turning waste into valuable resources.
3. Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) Programs
Ontario is in the process of expanding its EPR programing, where manufacturers are responsible for the entire lifecycle of their products, including taking back their packaging for recycling. This shifts the economic burden from local municipalities to producers, which could encourage better product design and waste reduction.
Investing in technologies, programs, and processes that reduce waste generation in the first place is ideal. This could be in the form of stricter regulations or incentives for businesses to cut down on waste during production. Innovations in packaging reduction and new ways to recycle or repurpose products could help solve some of the problem in the long term. Given the urgency of the situation with landfills filling up, a combination of these strategies would likely be necessary to avoid a full-blown crisis in Ontario’s waste management system.
References
[1] https://thenarwhal.ca/ontario-landfill-explainer/
[2] https://www.wastetodaymagazine.com/news/michigan-governor-proposes-increased-waste-disposal-surcharge/
